Football Machine Guide

Overview

The Football Machine is a fully customizable fantasy football projection engine built on real NFL data. It turns team play volume, player efficiency stats, career averages, and combine measurables into player-by-player stat projections that update in real time as you adjust inputs. Every number is derived from a model, not pulled from a consensus source — which means you can shape projections to match your own beliefs about how the season plays out.

Rankings View

The Rankings tab shows every projected player ranked across all teams, sorted by VORP by default with tier groupings visible. Use the sort dropdown to reorder by Fantasy Points, ADP, or individual stats (pass yards, rush yards, receptions, targets, TDs). Use position filters (QB, RB, WR, TE), the star filter to show only favorited players, or the search icon to find a player by name.

Team Adjustment View

Select any NFL team to see their projected roster. The team banner shows aggregate stats — total plays, pass/rush split, and positional ranks. Team Totals sliders let you adjust a team's total plays, pass percentage, and rush percentage. Increasing total plays gives every player more volume. Shifting the pass/rush split redistributes work across positions. Click any player to open their full profile — career stats, combine data, and detailed stat breakdowns.

VORP — Value Over Replacement Player

VORP answers: "How many fantasy points is this player worth compared to the worst starter in your league?" The system calculates a replacement baseline for each position based on league size:

Each player's VORP = projected points minus replacement points, adjusted for positional scarcity and starter demand. Positions with a flat replacement zone get a mild VORP discount; steep drop-offs get a mild boost. Positions with more starter slots (RB, WR, or QB in superflex) get a small premium. Flex-eligible positions (RB, WR, TE) are partially evaluated against a shared flex standard — a TE that dominates TE comparisons but loses the flex competition to elite RBs and WRs gets less credit than raw points alone would suggest.

Low / Base / Aggressive Outlook

Every player has an outlook dropdown. Base resets to the baseline projection. Low moves the marker to the 40th percentile — a mild "things go wrong" scenario. Aggressive moves to the 60th percentile — a mild "things go right" scenario. These aren't extreme outcomes — the 40th and 60th percentiles are close to the middle by design. The dropdown and curve marker stay in sync. You can set outlook per-player or per-team (the Team Outlook buttons at the top of each team page).

Distribution Curve

Every player on the Team Adjustment page has a bell curve showing their range of possible outcomes, built from a 600-sample Monte Carlo simulation. Drag the marker anywhere along the curve and every stat, efficiency, fantasy points, rank, and VORP updates in real time. The left edge is the floor, the right edge is the ceiling, and center is the baseline. The curve preserves natural correlations — when you drag toward the ceiling, you get realistic combinations, not every stat maxed out independently. Manually overridden efficiencies are respected and held fixed while everything else adjusts.

Player Efficiencies

Each player has efficiency inputs you can adjust. Type a new value and the full stat line, fantasy points, rank, and VORP recalculate instantly.

Each field shows a variance band — a shaded range representing the realistic floor-to-ceiling based on historical data. When you override an efficiency, it's locked in; the distribution curve adjusts everything else around it.

Tier Clustering

Players are grouped into tiers using Jenks natural breaks, a statistical algorithm that finds natural groupings by minimizing variance within each tier. The number of tiers scales with league size. Players in the same tier are essentially interchangeable in value. The tiers help you see drop-offs: when the last Tier 3 player is gone, there's a meaningful gap before Tier 4. Tier colors run from teal (Tier 1, elite) through green, yellow, orange, to red (deep bench).

Saved Boards

After adjusting projections, save your current state as a named board. Boards save all slider adjustments, team totals, and outlook settings. Logged-in users get cloud sync — accessible from any device. Boards also save to local storage as a backup for offline use. Load any saved board from the dropdown in the side panel to switch between scenarios.

Cheat Sheet Downloads

Export your custom rankings as a printable cheat sheet. The download includes your full top 300 with tiers, VORP, and projected stats — formatted for draft day. Downloads require a free account, which also unlocks cloud board sync.

League Settings

Configure your league format:

These settings affect every player's fantasy points and VORP across the full rankings. Rankings and VORP in the Football Machine use the same formula as the Mock Draft — set your league here first and the draft board will match exactly.

ADP — Average Draft Position

ADP reflects where players are being drafted across real mock and live drafts, pulled from Sleeper and updated throughout the offseason. Sort by ADP in the Rankings view to see players ordered by draft position. ADP automatically adjusts to match your scoring format and superflex setting. Compare ADP against VORP to find value gaps — players the market is undervaluing relative to their projected output.